Future Trajectories

Compute is not an input to the argument about artificial intelligence. It is the argument.

Concentration

Capability now tracks industrial access more closely than it tracks research talent. A state that rents its inference capacity inherits someone else's ceiling and someone else's timetable.

Control

Export control is the visible instrument. The durable one is manufacturing depth, which no policy instrument can substitute for on a five-year horizon.

Capacity

Sovereign capacity is unglamorous work: fabrication, power, cooling, and the people who can operate all three under pressure.